Canelo vs Triple G prediction: Blood-curdling jab will carry him to victory
The late great Emanuel Steward used to say, "a fighter's jab is his first line of defense and the punch that sets up everything in his entire arsenal."
After looking through the Hall of Fame trainer's impressive list of champions, it becomes clear that Emanuel's mentoring process was centered around two fundamentals that he felt were vital in determining any fighter's success and failure at the world class level...
Footwork and the jab.
(More Canelo vs Golovkin predictions)
When attempting to predict a winner for this Saturday night's main event between Saul "Canelo" Alvarez and Gennady "Triple G" Golovkin, both aforementioned variables will be crucial in establishing a clear and decisive victor, and should be viewed as the primary "Keys to Victory" for both combatants.
Obviously when pitting Canelo against Triple G, the Middleweight match-up is a great stylistic pairing which should produce plenty of fireworks and lots of dramatic action; It's ostensibly the irresistible force (Gennady Golovkin) against the immovable object (Canelo)...the effective aggressor versus the sharp-shooting counter puncher.
Both men are pound for pound warriors who combine power with technical proficiency.
So who wins this superb battle for Middleweight and "PPV" supremacy?
Canelo vs Golovkin: Keys to Victory
Gennady Golovkin (37-0, 33 KOs) - When analyzing the strengths and weaknesses of the 37 year old puncher from Kazakhstan, GGG always seems to implement a three-step process in which he systematically breaks down his customarily hard-punching opposition. Fight fans should expect to see Golovkin utilize this same ideology when facing a very dangerous counter puncher like Canelo Alvarez this Saturday night.
Gennady's jab is extremely underrated and is his primary weapon.
That's what Golovkin will start off doing against an accurate and explosive counter puncher like Alvarez. Look for GGG to use his footwork, moving in and out of range, while sticking the jab in Canelo's face throughout the first quarter of this scheduled 12 round contest.
Because Triple G's jab is like most fighters' right hands, it takes a serious toll on his opponents over the the course of three, four or five rounds. He consistently pounds them with that unusually strong lead hand...jab by jab, round by round, he starts to break his opponents down physically and mentally. This is Golovkin's first major key to a clear victory against his perceived toughest test to date.
After he establishes the jab in rhythm and sees that it is effective in breaking down and slowing his opponent considerably, he will start to implement his second major key to victory...closing the distance and working the body.
And when GGG recognizes that he's limited his opponent's ability to move around the ring proficiently with a steady and consistent attack to the body, he'll inevitably begin his final and seemingly imminent key to victory where he puts his punches together in short, sharp combinations to the body and head at close range.
If Gennady Golovkin gets to the third and final step, Canelo Alvarez will indeed get knocked out, and GGG will retain his WBC,IBF and WBA world titles on Saturday night.
Canelo vs GGG News
Date: September 16, 2107
Broadcast: HBO PPV (US)
Champion: Golovkin (Consensus)
Venue: T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas
Saul "Canelo" Alvarez (49-1-1, 34 KOs) - For the 5'9" Mexican native to be successful against his hardest punching foe to date, Canelo absolutely must take away Golovkin's primary weapon and win the jabbing contest during the first quarter of this scheduled 12 round affair. This is Saul's first and most crucial key to a clear and decisive victory.
There are two ways he can effectively accomplish this seemingly daunting task. He can 1) establish his own hard, sticking jab as GGG attempts to land his lead left hand, or 2) Canelo can try to use lateral movement to nullify Gennady's customarily powerful jab.
When Golovkin throws his jab from mid to long range, Canelo must immediately counter with his own forceful jab, often doubling and tripling it as an effective counter. This will discourage Triple G from letting his lead hand go and keep him from successfully establishing a rhythm early in this fight.
Because Alvarez largely depends on being flat-footed in combining speed and power in his shots, look for Saul to implement the former strategy in taking away Golovkin's primary weapon. If Alvarez isn't successful landing his jab to start the contest, he absolutely must not abandon it and keep Triple G's mind occupied with the hard left hand to the body and head.
Canelo likes to fight his opponents at angles and utilizes a great amount of patience with a very impressive punch economy.
He doesn’t waste a lot of energy in the ring and throws creative combinations to the body and head with speed and power, which usually creates serious problems for his opponents when trying to time and counter effectively.
Although he has a wide arsenal of punches, Canelo’s best weapons are his left hook to the body and straight right hand to the jaw.
Successfully establishing the jab will set up the 27 year old's next big "Key to Victory"...the left hook to the body and straight right hand to the jaw.
Canelo must effectively land his best shots early and often in this contest to 1) dictate the pace of the fight, and 2) get GGG's respect, which will keep him honest and at a relatively safe distance.
If Alvarez can proficiently win the jabbing contest early, and continue to land his impressive and creative arsenal of combinations to the body and head while not wasting energy in the back half of the fight, he can dethrone the current Middleweight king and become the biggest star in boxing.
Canelo vs GGG Prediction
Gennady Golovkin is an Olympic Silver medalist with a very impressive amateur pedigree, and remains one of the hardest pound for pound punchers in the entire sport. The undefeated Middleweight champion is also one of the best ring generals in boxing who proficiently fights at multiple ranges.
Although Canelo has the edge in youth, speed and professional experience against top tier opposition, Triple G's left jab, power and ring intelligence will prove to be too much for the brave combatant from Guadalajara.
Golovkin TKO10 over Canelo
Triple G vs Lemieux 2015 highlights - Watch the jab!