Canelo vs Murata odds: Don't blink

Lee Cleveland Updated
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Yes, Canelo Alvarez vs Ryota Murata (16-2, 13 KOs) makes sense. In fact, the latter is probably Alvarez's most likely opponent for May as FightSaga's Joseph Herron explains in his piece Canelo vs Murata: Why a fight with the Olympic Gold Medalist might make the most 'cents.'

However, such a bout wouldn't exactly be a 'pick em' affair for betting enthusiasts.

Canelo vs Murata odds
We haven't seen opening odds for this fight but will make an estimate based on the typical strengths and weaknesses of each fighter, intangibles and Canelo's previous bouts.

Alvarez, the RING Magazine / Lineal middleweight champion, will enter this fight with every conceivable advantage over the Japanese WBA Regular belt-holder including experience, speed, power, technical prowess, footwork, youth and level of opposition. And with Canelo being the strong A-side, Murata will have to decisively school Alvarez if the former has any chance whatsoever to win on points.

At 6'0" with a 75" reach, Murata will be the rangier fighter but we've seen Canelo recently overcome such obstacles against Daniel Jacobs and Sergey Kovalev, foes far more accomplished and arguably more dangerous than Murata.

Also, should Canelo vs Murata happen in May it will take place in Ryota's native Japan. But, again, Canelo would still be a strong enough A-side that we shouldn't expect Murata to get a little 'hometown cooking' for any close rounds.

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Canelo Alvarez - Most Significant Fights

Won KO 11 Sergey Kovalev
Nov 2, 2019

Won UD 12 Daniel Jacobs
May 4, 2019

Won MD 12 Gennady Golovkin
Sep 15, 2018

Draw 12 Gennady Golovkin
Sep 16, 2017

Won UD 12 Julio Cesar Chavez Jr
May 6 2017

Won KO 6 Amir Khan
May 7, 2016

Won UD 12 Miguel Cotto
Nov 15, 2015

Won SD 12 Erislandy Lara
Jul 12, 2014

Lost MD 12 Floyd Mayweather
Sep 14, 2013

Won UD 12 Austin Trout
Apr 20, 2013

Won UD 12 Shane Mosley
May 5, 2012

Won UD 12 Matthew Hatton
Mar 5, 2011

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Simply put, Canelo Alvarez will be a whopping favorite.

Against Rocky Fielding in December 2018, Canelo was oddsmakers' choice by -1600 while Fielding was a +800 underdog; and we expect similar opening odds for Canelo vs Murata should it happen. And let's not forget that Fielding entered his bout with Alvarez with a stellar 27-1 record.  Murata is just 3-2 in his last 5 bouts but, to his credit, has avenged both defeats by knockout.

Yes, Murata is probably a better fighter than Fielding BUT Canelo, based on his subsequent wins over Jacobs and Kovalev, is arguably a better fighter today, especially against tall opponents, than was the case when he easily dispatched Fielding in December 2018.

Incidentally, against Jacobs in May 2019, Canelo sat at -500 with the former at +500. And against Kovalev, Alvarez was the -360 favorite over the Russian who sat at +300.

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Ryota Murata - Most Significant Fights

Won TKO 2 Rob Brant
Jun 12, 2019

Lost UD 12 Rob Brant
Nov 20, 2019

Won TKO 7 Hassan N'Dam N'Jikam
Oct 22, 2017

Lost SD 12 Hassan N'Dam N'Jikam
May 20, 2017
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Another previous Canelo opponent who Murata's chances may closely mimic is Liam Smith. In his bout with Smith in September 2017, Alvarez was a rough -1225 favorite while Smith was a hopeful dark horse at +875.

Should this fight happen in a few months, look for Canelo to enter as a -1200 to -1500 favorite with Murata sitting at about +750 to +900.

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Canelo vs Murata *Tentative*
Date: May 2, 2020
Location: Japan
Broadcast: DAZN
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Please share your thoughts about our hypothesized betting line.

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Great article!!
Maybe I'm drinking the Kool-Aid, but I love this style match-up. I know Canelo's last two bouts were against genuine challenges in their respective divisions, but the fights played out in a largely tactical manner. This, for as long or as short as it lasts, will be an absolute slugfest. Ryota fights one way...to deliver that big right hand. He doesn't like to merely control range from the outside with his jab...Murata wants to win by knock-out. In my opinion, this match-up is exactly what the doctor ordered for Canelo, Golden Boy and DAZN. Should be extremely entertaining for every casual and mainstream fan who chooses to purchase this event.
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