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Charlo vs. Derevyanchenko: Head to Head analysis and prediction

Joseph Herron Updated
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Saturday, September 26th, at the Mohegan Sun Arena in Uncasville, Connecticut, WBC Middleweight champion Jermall Charlo (30-0, 22 KO's) will defend his coveted title against #1 ranked Sergiy Derevyanchenko (13-2, 10 KO's) from Ukraine in the co-main event of a superb doubleheader!!

 "Charlo vs. Derevyanchenko" will air live on Showtime PPV with an unusual start time of 7PM ET/4PM PT, and will be featured as the first main event of a unique two-card presentation.  So fans should expect the opening bell of "Charlo vs. Derevyanchenko" to sound between 9 and 9:30PM ET.  The exclusive event can be purchased through your satellite/cable provider, or directly from Showtime streaming services for a one-time cost of $74.99.
 
The highly anticipated "Charlo Twin Bill" marks the first major event within the American boxing market since Wilder/Fury 2, which took place on February 22nd.  Because of the global pandemic, the entire sport came to a screeching halt in March and has been slow in returning because of the absence of a live gate.
 
Although none of the match-ups on Saturday night will be staged in front of a live audience, the six-fight bout sheet is a fine one, with several potential "fight of the year" candidates.
 
Tale of the Tape
 
Jermall Charlo (30-0, 22 KO's) - The 30 year old, WBC Middleweight champion hails from Houston, Texas, and fights out of an orthodox stance.  The hard-punching combatant stands 6'0" in the center of the ring and fights behind a long 74" reach.
  
Charlo has better than average power in both hands and has shown a better than average beard in his 30 professional bouts, but has never really faced an opponent with world-class power.  He is very athletic and uses his footwork as the foundation of his defense while still showing a proficiency to fight effectively in the pocket.
 
The reigning champ is physically strong and uses an impressive arsenal of punches, which he displays frequently throughout the entire fight: left hook, right hook, left uppercut, right uppercut, overhand right, straight jab, and a powerful straight right hand. 
 
Charlo also combines speed with power when he throws punches, which makes him a very dangerous fighter.  But because the current champ combines speed with power, he often sacrifices volume.
 
Jermall is currently trained by elite level fight coach Ronnie Shields, who has done a brilliant job in cultivating a seemingly complete and versatile fighter who can take the lead effectively or box his opponents proficiently from mid to long range.
 
Charlo likes to use his speed and footwork to dominate his opposition, setting traps while using a mixture of sporadic jabs to set up his vaunted straight right hand, keeping his opponents at a comfortable distance.
 
Mall's most underrated attribute is his ability to think in the ring. He's an ostensibly mentally strong fighter and seems to deal with adversity well. He is an undefeated fighter and hasn't lost since his days as an amateur. This could prove to be a very important factor against what most critics believe to be his strongest and most skilled opponent to date.
 
Can Jermall Charlo silence his critics and join the elite with an impressive victory over the fighting enigma that is Sergiy Derevyanchenko?
  
Sergiy Derevyanchenko (13-2, 10 KO's) - The 34 year old native of Ukraine is one of the sport's best technical combatants.  The elite level talent currently fights out of an orthodox stance, stands 5'9" in the center of the ring, and fights behind a 68" reach.  
 
With an impressive amateur record of 390-20, and two controversial professional losses to Danny Jacobs (2018) and Gennady Golovkin (2019), most boxing fans and critics believe "The Technician" to be the sport's best fighter to have never won a major world title. 
 
Because of his extensive amateur pedigree, the title challenger has competed against every possible style and has experienced every potential scenario in the ring, making him a physically and mentally durable fighter.
 
Sergiy also possesses very good hand speed, while deploying a high volume and wide arsenal of punches.  But because Derevyanchenko combines speed with volume, he often sacrifices punching power.  And due to his limited height and reach, the Ukraine native depends on fighting in the pocket or at close range.  
 
What makes the Brooklyn based fighter such an enigma in the ring is his proficient footwork.  Sergiy uses his feet as the foundation of his defense and has the ability to move effectively in and out of the pocket while showing his opponents various angles underneath.  After mounting an offensive attack on the inside, the elite level fighter will often pivot or spin around his opponent, taking his head and body out of the direct line of fire, and consequently making it very difficult for his opponents to counter effectively.
 
Derevyanchenko has been floored against two of the hardest Middleweight punchers in recent memory, but has never been stopped and ostensibly has a better than average chin. Because the title challenger's offensive attack depends on his ability to cut off the ring, close the distance, and work successfully on the inside, expect Sergiy's beard to be tested while moving into close quarters.
 
Can Sergiy Derevyanchenko finally win a major world title against another undefeated and hard punching incumbent champion?
 
Keys to Victory
 
Jermall Charlo - To successfully retain his WBC title, Jermall Charlo absolutely must use his jab and his footwork to control the action from mid to long range.  While Sergiy attempts to close the distance, the reigning champ must throw the left hook, straight right-hand combination and immediately turn his hard-charging opponent.  
 
Mall has to keep the fight in the center of the ring and continue turning his much smaller opponent whenever he attempts to move into firing range. 
 
To win the fight, Charlo must stay off the ropes and out of corners.  If he finds himself trapped on the ropes, the champ should elect to tie up his opponent, forcing referee Harvey Dock to separate both fighters and create distance between the two combatants.
 
Also, because Sergiy is traditionally a slow starter, Jermall should come out firing and test his chin early, throwing the left hook and straight right hand.  This tactic could earn the respect of the effective aggressor and make him think twice about closing the distance.
 
If Jermall Charlo can successfully execute these keys to victory, he will retain his WBC Middleweight title and more than likely enter the discussion of P4P consideration.
 
Sergiy Derevyanchenko - To become the new WBC Middleweight champion, Sergiy Derevyanchenko must be ready to work at the opening bell and can't get caught early in this fight.  It could once again be the difference in winning or losing.  The Ukraine puncher has to dictate the pace of the action early, moving forward while working behind a sporadic jab; using feints, touch jabs and hard sticking left hands.
 
But Sergiy absolutely has to be careful not to use a consistent jab with the same velocity and torque, or he will eventually be timed and countered by an overhand right or left hook as he attempts to close the distance.  
 
When Derevyanchenko does successfully move into range, he cannot allow Charlo to tie him up on the inside and has to keep throwing in combination to the body and head with his elbows and chin tucked in tightly.  
 
Workrate should be Sergiy's primary objective in this fight.  He absolutely must outwork the more explosive and harder punching champion to win rounds.  He shouldn't worry about scoring a knock-out and must be prepared to work for all three minutes of every round.  
 
If he can successfully dictate the pace of the fight, avoid hard, incoming shots while trying to close the distance, and work effectively underneath to the body and head, Sergiy Derevyanchenko will become the new WBC Middleweight champion.
 
 
Final Prediction
 
Although there will be moments when Jermall is severely tested in this fight, the reigning champion's youth, speed, power, versatility and overall athleticism will prove to be too much for the talented Ukrainian.  But fans shouldn't expect to see a knock-out.  KO's at the elite level are very rare...especially against a fighter as durable and experienced as Derevyanchenko.
 
Jermall Charlo UD12 over Sergiy Derevyanchenko 
 
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