Dubois v Joyce odds: Why clear favorite emerges

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Lee Cleveland Updated
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Two red hot, up-and-coming British heavyweights are likely to face-off April 18. Who do you like for Daniel Dubois (14-0, 13 KO) vs Joe Joyce (10-9, KO)?

Credit both teams for taking this fight (should it happen in April) because we don't often see two surging, unbeaten fighters face each other during their ascent through the ranks.

Sure, we see unbeaten fighters already at the top of their divisions go head to head, but we seldom see two up-and-comers and potential stars take that massive risk against each other.

A few years ago, this fight probably wouldn't have happened so soon because promoters would have opted to play it safe and wait until both fighters were well-established as powerbrokers in the division before pitting them against each other.

But, the safe approach isn't always the best for the fans and overall health of the sport.

As a result of Dubois vs Joyce, one fighter's stock will surge while the other will suffer an early setback. At the fight's conclusion, the winner can safely say he's defeated a hungry, unbeaten prospective powerbroker on the same path (in addition to the hand-picked 'opponents' he was expected to beat).

So, let's get right to it..  Who is the favorite among these heavyweight newbies?

Dubois vs Joyce odds
Not surprisingly, Daniel Dubois is the clear pick in this one... Although anything can happen. Fox Bet likes Dubois (-400) over Joyce (+275). Odds on a draw are +2500.

bet365 likes Dubois at -350 and Joyce at 250 while ResortsCasino.com has one of the more wide spreads at -425 Dubois and +275 Joyce.

And there's not a lot of room to argue with the bettors.

Odds methodology
For starters, Dubois, from a visual standpoint, looks to be the stronger, more skilled, more versatile of the two. He also looks a tad quicker and more threatening in the ring.

Bettors might also be considering the age difference as Joyce is 34 while Dubois is only 22. However, it seems many heavyweights aren't peaking until their early to mid 30s today anyway. Experts shouldn't take age into consideration, especially because Joyce is a fresh 34. He's not Chris Arreola or Shannon Briggs at the same age.

In fact, the age difference could be to Joyce's benefit because he's probably the more mature, more composed of the two.

Secondly, and for all it's worth, Dubois has generated more momentum to this point and will be the A-side. Hence, he's more likely to win a close fight should it go to the scorecards.

And third, Joyce, in his most recent bout, couldn't stop Bryant Jennings, a quality, seasoned pro, within the distance. While there's no shame in Joyce's decision win, it probably created some skeptics. Yes, Jennings is the best fighter on either resume but was stopped in 2 by Luis Ortiz not long ago. Critics are pointing to that fight and questioning whether Joe is elite level yet.

In 2018, Dubois won a points verdict over super durable Kevin Johnson, a jorneyman who previous opponents such as Vitali Klitschko, Andy Ruiz Jr, Manuel Charr and Dereck Chisora couldn't knockout.

Dubois also has four more fights under his belt, having turned pro 6 months earlier (Apr 2017) than Joyce.

And his recent drubbing of young prospect Nathan Gorman, then undefeated, elevated Daniel's status in the eyes of many. Daniel performed as an elite heavyweight would have been expected that evening.

Joe Joyce - Most Significant Fights

Won UD 12 Bryant Jennings (then 24-3)
Jul 13, 2019

Won TKO Alexander Ustinov (then 34-3 but 40+ in years)
May 18, 2019

Won TKO 6 Bermane Stiverne (then 25-3-1 but very heavy, out of shape)
Feb 23, 2019

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Daniel Dubois - Most Significant Fights

Won TKO 2 Kyotaro Fujimoto (then 21-1)
Dec 21, 2019

Won KO 5 Nathan Gorman
(then 16-0, good, young prospect)
Jul 13, 2019

Won UD 10 Kevin Johnson
(then 32-10-1, rugged journeyman who has faced big names; notoriously difficult to KO)
Oct 6, 2018

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For those looking for reasons to favor Joyce, he arguably has the aforementioned age advantage (depending on how some look at it), boasts a two inch reach advantage and is rated higher in the division by BoxRec's algorithm. Joyce is ranked No. 20 in the division while Dubois sits at No. 25. So, BoxRec thinks Joyce is the more accomplished, especially with his win over Jennings. And like Dubois, Joyce is not short on power.

Dubois vs Joyce, regardless of the outcome, will be very consequential because it'll tell us a lot about both fighters and will surley impact the landscape of the division. Don't be surprised if the winner is universally recognized as a top 10 heavyweight.

What are your thgoughts on the Dubois vs Joyce odds.

 
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