Fury vs Wilder 3 odds: Wait, what?

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Lee Cleveland Updated
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It's on for July 18.

Heavyweight champion Tyson Fury will face former champ Deontay Wilder in Fight No. 3, an immediate rematch from Wilder vs Fury 2 on February 22, 2020.

In last month's match, an aggressive, bullying Fury dominated his foe, flooring Wilder twice and prompting Team Wilder cornerman Mark Breland to throw in the towel to request a corner stoppage - an ask that Referee Kenny Bayless immediately adhered to.

Why is Fury vs Wilder 3 happening?

Answer: Deontay and his team are convinced Wilder can win and have executed an immediate rematch clause provision in the Wilder vs Fury 2 contract that basically says an immediate third fight must happen if either of the fighters want it.

Wilder genuinely believes he was wronged by cornerman Mark Breland's surrender in the 7th Round of Fury vs Wilder 2. And while We've heard a few excuses from Wilder, the bottom line is that he was NOT literally KO'd by Fury. As a result, in his heart he will always believe he could have knocked out Fury had the fight not been stopped.

Let's remember that in his first fight against KO artist Luis Ortiz, Wilder was clearly on the verge of being knocked out when he came back to knockout Ortiz a few rounds later.

Wilder entered his second fight with Fury with the aforementioned Ortiz fight in mind and one of the best heavyweight championship records of all time. He was 42-0-1, 41 knockouts. Given Wilder has known nothing but success in boxing and is always a knockout threat with the monster right hand he harbours, no one will be successful in convincing him couldn't have won Fight No. 2. And nothing will... Sans, perhaps, a third fight. Even his own mother wouldn't be able to.

Champions are the last to accept defeat... And that's part of what makes them champions.

Fury vs Wilder 3 odds: Probably not what you'd expect

Per BetOnline on Mar 2, 2020, opening odds are as follows:

Fury -260
Wilder +220

What, wait?

Given fight No. 2 was one-sided and most believe Fury outpointed Wilder in their first fight (a draw), shouldn't the Fury vs Wilder 3 betting line be wider?

In fact, some say Wilder has clearly won just 2 of the 19 rounds they've fought, insisting the rest were either won by Fury or could have gone either way.

Deontay hasn't been able to outbox or outbrawl Fury and can't figure out how to generate any offense against the 6'9" Brit. 

Unless Team Wilder can quickly - and dramatically - alter it's game plan for Fury, an immediate rematch shouldn't even be considered, right?

So, what gives with these opening Fury vs Wilder 3 odds?

Let's not forget, Wilder is still 42-1-1, 41 KOs. He's no Tijuana taxi driver. Even more, he possesses one of the best weapons in the history of boxing - his right hand. And he blasted Tyson with that punch in Round 12 of Fight No. 1. If he can land it flush, it's the great equalizer and it doesn't matter how far ahead or behind he is in the fight.

“There has been plenty of talk in the days since the fight that Deontay Wilder would choose not to exercise the rematch option – but any doubts have been put to bed,” Pete Watt, spokesperson for Oddchecker told BoxingScene.com. “Many people seem to have temporarily forgotten the kind of career and self-belief that Wilder possesses, and he will firmly believe that he can upset the odds and reclaim the belts that he held for over five years.”

Odds history
Fury was slightly favored for about a year prior to Wilder vs Fury 2; However, the odds flipped about 4-6 days prior to Fight No. 2 and Wilder became the favorite due to rumors of Fury having had a poor training camp and Tyson's confirmation of ankle issues.

UNIBET and BETDAQ had Wilder as the thin betting favorite at 17/20 and 20/21, respectively, with Fury at 21/20. Also, betfair liked Deontay 20/21 to Tyson's 21/20. And the popular William Hill placed Wilder at a -125 favorite while Fury was a +100 underdog.

Until the week of the fight, odds resembled the below:
Wilder +105 (21/20)
Fury -125 (4/5)

Money: A Fury vs Wilder 3 obstacle?
Given the overall dynamics of the near 19 rounds they've fought so far coupled with Fury's dominance, will Fury vs Wilder 3 sell?

Both guys earned at least $25 Million for their rematch last month so it's difficult see how an immediate third match could generate the same money, given what we've seen in Parts I and II.

Not only will Team Wilder need to be creative in it's strategy and approach, promoters will have to be creative in order to earn revenue commiserate with Fight No. 2.

The live gate of $16,916,440 for Wilder-Fury 2 broke the Nevada record for a heavyweight fight and is, as of Feb 23, 2020, the seventh-highest gate overall in Nevada history. Overall PPV buys are estimated at 1.2 million (at $79.99 per purchase) and the fighters earned $25 Million a piece plus some change.

Do you see the odds changing dramatically one way or the other from now until July 18?

 
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