Mayweather vs Pacquiao 2 odds: Forgetting the intangibles
Who knows if the Floyd Mayweather vs Manny Pacquiao rematch will happen in 2019?
And who knows why Mayweather, who is approaching 42 and rich beyond belief, is contemplating a return in the first place?
And who knows why the Mayweather vs Pacquiao 2 odds are so misleading?
Floyd Mayweather has opened as a decent, although not incredibly strong, favorite. Bovada has Floyd at -230 and Manny sitting at + 180.
What are oddsmakers thinking as there's no defending those numbers?
Sure, Floyd is unbeaten and won the first fight. And yes, on paper Mayweather should be the favorite. However, some key intangibles seemed to be overlooked.
Mayweather won on the scorecards and there's no arguing the decision but he didn't beat Manny Pacquiao that night. He outpointed Pacquiao and did what he had to in order to win, but didn't really beat him.
Given the above, we should take a look at the intangibles.
For starters, let's not forget PacMan fought Floyd with a torn right rotator cuff.
Team Pacquiao assumed their man would be able to take injections of lidocaine, celestone and bupivacaine an hour or so before the fight. But on the night of the fight, Nevada Athletic Commission refused to allow Manny Pacquiao's team to inject "legal" numbing agents in his injured shoulder so Pacquiao was forced to fight while in great pain.
The above agents, which are approved by the United States Anti-Doping Agency, would have numbed the pain for about six hours.
I'm not blaming Nevada as Team Pacquiao may have dropped the ball by waiting until the last minute to indicate its intensions to use the numbing agent. Regardless, Manny had surgery after the fight and will be far closer to 100 percent in the rematch should it happen.
Second, since their May 2015 bout, Manny has engaged in four bouts while Floyd only one (real fight). Mayweather has been largely inactive having not faced a top boxer since Andre Berto in September 2015. Pacquiao, on the other hand, has faced 4 guys who were arguably better, pound-pound, than Berto. There are rumors Mayweather wants a tune-up first because... Well, knows he'll need it.
Third, Manny Pacquiao wants to win this fight more than Floyd. Pure and simple. He believes the first fight was stolen from him and wants nothing more than to fight Floyd again. He will be hungrier and more motivated than Floyd, who has been spending a lot of time in strip clubs since their rematch. He looked motivated enough against Matthysee. Now, imagine the fire he'll bring when he faces Floyd again.
Fourth, people seem to forget that Manny has looked dynamic in 3 of his last 4 fights. He soundly decisioned Tim Bradley (then 31-1-1), dominated Jessie Vargas (then 27-1), dropped a controversial decision to Jeff Horn (then 16-0-1) who he nearly knocked out in Round 9 of a mauling affair and looked 29 years old again in KOing Lucas Matthysse (then 39-4).
Fifth, and for all it's worth, Mayweather looked like an old man against MMA star Conor McGregor. Yes, he held back to make it a better show; but his upper and lower body reflexes seemed slower than what we are accoustomed to, even when Floyd shifted gears to KO mode.
Given the intangibles, Manny should be the favorite even if by a tiny margin. In fact, I wouldn't be surprised if Manny stopped Floyd inside the distance.
Regardless of what the odds tell us, Floyd Mayweather should want no piece of Manny Pacquiao at this point.