Paul vs Askren odds: Why Jake is the favorite

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Saturday’s fight between Jake Paul and Ben Askren might be one of the most difficult high-profile fights to create betting lines for. The former is a novice boxer we’ve seen very little of and the latter is an ex-MMA star and wrestling phenom making his professional boxing debut.

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Paul vs Askren 
8 rounds, cruiserweights
April 17, 2021

FITE TV: $49.99
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And to complicate matters more, Jake has two wins against non-boxers while Ben’s stand-up skills left a lot to be desired when competed as a professional mixed martial artist. However, Ben has far more fighting experience and is used to plying his craft on the big stage and against legitimately threatening opponents, albeit no boxers. Moreover, he’s certainly the more mature of the two and is seemingly more disciplined in his approach to things.

Who has the edge?

Paul vs Askren odds

Bettors are leaning towards a Jake Paul victory. And he’s obviously the conservative pick. As of April 14, three days from fight day, William Hill slates Paul at its 4/7 (or -175) favorite while Askren sits at 11/8 (or +138). And the odds for a draw are 14/1.

A successful $175 bet on Paul would yield a $100 return while a $100 wager on Askren would profit gamblers $138. Of course, a winning $100 bet on a draw would garner $1400 (And that might be best odds option of them all)

Method of victory odds

  • Paul by stoppage or disqualification: 10/11
  • Paul by decision or technical decision: 11/2
  • Askren by stoppage or disqualification: 7/2
  • Askren by decision or technical decision: 11/4

Why is Jake the favorite?

While Ben has the advantages we mentioned near the top of the article, Paul has been training in boxing for two years, appears very athletic and, with his height, reach and build, seems more physically suited for boxing than Ben.

So, not only does Paul have more boxing training experience and at a higher level, he looks ‘more the part’ with his lean, rangy physique, quick left jab and good overhand right. Also we know Jake can put punches together well enough to set up a knockout because we’ve seem him do it twice.

We don’t know much about Jake but we can see he's honed a few tools.

Paul could walk into any boxing gym and spar top amateurs or other beginner pros, and trainers would know he’s boxed before.

They wouldn’t know if he was a professional newbie or a decent amateur, but they’d know he’d been training somewhere - and for longer than a year.

The same can’t be said for Askren… or so it seems. (Maybe he’ll surprise us).

Boxing is a lot harder than it looks and experience means a lot – especially on the level these guys will be fighting.

Perhaps these prediction quotes (via BoxingNews24say it best:

“I lean slightly towards Jake Paul. I think that he can box long enough where he should win, but I give Askren a slight chance. I mean, it’s hard to learn boxing in 12 weeks. I think I have to go with Jake Paul.”

Former elite-level boxer Jeff Mayweather

“I see Jake Paul training hard, but obviously this guy [Ben Askren] has got a lot of experience. He’s fighting a guy that has been in the gym and been in the martial mixed arts, but I think he’s [Ben Askren] going to get beat up.”

Jorge Capetillo

“My thing is with Askren defensively. What is he going to do to get out of the way of punch? I don’t think he’s going to do too much. He’s going to get hit by the younger, bigger guy who’s into boxing right now. I got Jake Paul by knockout.”

Sean Zittel


All that stated, an Askren win would be far from a monumental upset because Paul is so untested and Ben has been in the trenches many times and has the intangibles in his favor.

… But, concrete advantages are usually much better to have in your favor than intangibles. And Paul’s advantages are more solid and definitive.

 

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