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Tuesday, 30 December 2014 01:28

Floyd Mayweather or Saul Alvarez? Why Canelo may be the better pick for Miguel Cotto

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So who will Miguel Cotto fight next?

Until a few weeks ago, Mexican star and former WBC jr middleweight champion Saul 'Canelo' Alvarez seemed to be a shoe-in for Cinco de Mayo weekend.

However, rumors persist the two camps are only halfway through negotiations and Gaby Peñagarícano, Cotto's legal advisor, recently supported the claim.

Via Twitter, Peñagarícano stated, "The reality is that there is no agreement yet. None. For any fight. We are in talks, but an announcement that we reached an agreement for that fight [with Canelo] - it is not true.

And a fight with Mayweather has certainly not been ruled out."


Perhaps a deal is not close and Floyd is still in the picture?

Last year, Golden Boy, Canelo Alvarez's promotional outfit, apparently offered Cotto $10 Million to step in the ring with Alvarez. Miguel, of course, refused, opting to face then lineal middleweight champion Sergio Martinez instead, and for presumably lesser money.

"I believe that the fight with Canelo is premature right now. He is 23 years old and his name will be around," Cotto said last year shortly after announcing he'd opted to fight Sergio Martinez instead of Canelo Alvarez.

And here we are.

Unfortunately, Teams Cotto and Canelo have been deliberating for quite some time and there seems to be a hurdle or two.

Given his stock is so high, Miguel Cotto could fight Floyd Mayweather again next. Mayweather, of course, would probably love nothing more than to keep his options open in case his team cannot come to terms with Manny Pacquiao. (Are they even talking?)

But, here's the problem.

If Team Canelo offers Cotto anywhere near the $10 million guarantee they served-up last year, Cotto may be looking at a sizable purse downgrade should he fight Mayweather.


While Floyd is a bigger draw than Canelo, he commands so much more in revenue. Couple that with the public's growing frustration over Mayweather vs Pacquiao not happening, and Cotto, by fighting Floyd, may only earn 50% of what he would by facing Canelo.

Cotto is believed to have earned $8 million in their first fight but it's hard to see how he'd earn that much today, especially given that 3 of Mayweather's last 4 PPVs have under-performed.

Mayweather vs Cotto garnered 1.5 million PPV buys in 2012 but a rematch this spring may fall short of one million.  Barring something extraordinary, it's difficult to surmise Mayweather vs Cotto 2 generating anywhere near 1.5 million buys.

Floyd Mayweather has a $32 Million guarantee so unless Mayweather vs Cotto 2 somehow generates massive numbers, Miguel may only pocket $3-5 Million for fighting 'Money May.'

Monetarily, Cotto may be a lot better off fighting Canelo. He could probably earn twice the revenue, as his split with Canelo would be much closer to 50-50.

Unless Cotto has found a chink in Mayweather's armor and is absolutely certain he can win, numbers and trends suggest the better pick is Canelo.