Without a big network licensing guarantee, with a more attractive die-hard match-up slated to air on HBO PPV just two weeks after the Top Rank event date, and without the benefit of the marquee star in the U.S. to promote the event, "Pacquiao vs. Vargas" appears to be "up against it".
And although HBO passed on the prospect of distributing the proposed Top Rank match-up, they more than likely would have been very interested in paying a licensing fee for a pairing opposite Terence Crawford.
But according to boxing's former cash-cow, Oscar De la Hoya, the eight division world champion made the right decision in selecting Jessie Vargas as his November 5 dance partner.
"If you're a retired fighter coming back, why would you take on someone like Crawford," the former US Olympic Gold medal winner asked ESNews. "He obviously can't draw any numbers on PPV, and it's a dangerous fight. It's a no win scenario for Manny."
"It's actually a lose/lose situation for him."
The universally recognized Super Lightweight champion headlined his first HBO PPV event on July 23, which was reported to have only sold between 50-60K PPVs. In contrast, Hall of Fame promoter Bob Arum is hoping Jessie Vargas will appeal to the always important Hispanic fight fan demographic.
Although the Golden Boy doesn't believe either match-up would be a big hit at the PPV box office, the prizefighter turned successful promoter acknowledges the risk/reward factor when determining Manny's controversial selection.
"I think he made the right choice in fighting Jessie Vargas," states Oscar De la Hoya. "It's an easier fight than a match-up against Crawford. I think it'll probably do bad numbers just like his last event, but it's a more winnable fight."
A press conference officially announcing the event is expected to take place in Los Angeles, California, on September 8.